One of the biggest forces behind this year's higher clothing prices has a built-in end date. The Section 122 surcharge — 15 percent on most imports, in effect since February 24, 2026 — can only last 150 days under the statute, which puts its expiration at July 24, 2026 unless Congress affirmatively extends it. Retail industry groups, including the American Apparel and Footwear Association, have flagged the date as a major uncertainty for pricing and sourcing decisions through the rest of the year.
What happens to clothing prices if the tariff lapses?
Do not expect sticker prices to drop on July 25. Retail prices tend to be sticky: merchants absorbed some tariff costs at first, then raised prices as pre-tariff inventory sold through, and a lapsed surcharge would likely show up as slower increases rather than markdowns. What a lapse would change is the trajectory — importers restocking for fall and holiday would face lower landed costs, easing the upward pressure that has kept apparel inflation running ahead of overall prices for months.
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What happens if Congress extends it?
Extension would lock in the current cost structure through the holiday season. For shoppers, the practical consequences arrive on the calendar rather than overnight:
- Fall inventory ordered after a decision gets priced at the prevailing duty rate, so the timing of restocking matters more than the announcement itself.
- Retailers facing a fixed deadline often accelerate shipments to beat it — front-loaded inventory can briefly mean excess stock and deeper clearance afterward.
- Every $1 of tariff historically lands at retail as roughly 1.50 to 2 dollars after markups, so the difference between lapse and extension compounds across a season's wardrobe.
Should you change when you buy clothes this month?
Neither outcome argues for panic buying. Clearance cycles, off-price channels, and resale beat tariff timing for most purchases. The date that matters for value is your store's markdown calendar, not July 24. If you were already planning a full-price fall purchase, though, waiting to see how the tariff vote lands costs you little and could spare you a surcharge-driven markup on newly landed inventory.
The condition to watch: the Section 122 surcharge expires by law on July 24, 2026 unless Congress extends it, and whichever way that goes, it sets clothing-price direction for the back half of the year.